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March 10, 2008

Concentrating Solar Power - Technology, Cost, and Markets

Concentrating Solar Power - Technology, Cost, and Markets is the industry's most comprehensive research report to date on the burgeoning CSP market. Over the past six months alone, over $30 Billion in investment has been proposed for plants to be constructed in the next several years. The report finds that the sector could amass up to $200 Billion in aggregate investment globally for installations through 2020. That being said, the CSP market segment will remain relatively small compared to the overall solar market dominated by the evolution of flat plate and tracking photovoltaics (PV). A few of the key findings of the report include:

  • CSP clearly has a role to play over the next decade. With the current plants, those in construction, those under consideration, and the pace of development, it is clear that some tens of GW of cumulative production over the next decade - possibly as much as 50 GW - of CSP capacity will be installed by 2020.
  • PV will remain dominant in the distributed market. That said, flat plate PV for distributed applications and some fixed or single-axis tracking systems for central systems will remain economically competitive. Unless CSP technologies can match those of PV, the distributed market will be tough for CSP technology to penetrate.
  • Centralized generation market up for grabs. While each of the technologies has core markets that they best serve, it is where these markets overlap that is most interesting for evaluating competition for solar technologies. The full report provides a detailed analysis of such competing market dynamics.

The technologies examined in this report include all currently available and potential technologies near commercialization in CSP for electricity generation. These technologies break down into two general categories, including Concentrating Solar Thermal (CST) and Concentrating Photovoltaic (CPV). The report provides technical and financial analysis of these various technologies and the relevant players in these growing markets. The report covers all technology variations from the system-level through concentrator technologies and power conversion.

Understanding the cost of solar is not enough; the value of the electricity generated versus the cost is what will drive the market economics and technology adoption. Though often thought of as expensive to generate, solar electricity technologies do create electricity at the most valuable time of the day - during peak daylight hours. Therefore, solar energy is by its nature high-value electricity at both the wholesale and retail levels, displacing the need for expensive (often) natural gas fired intermediate power generators that are subject to substantial swings in fuel prices.

How the power is purchased is also important, and two methods have emerged - 1) retail/commercial customers who can buy power to replace the power they currently purchase from utilities, and (2) the utility themselves either directly or through wholesale power markets. The figure below shows the number of companies that this report tracks that are attempting to serve each of those markets.

The report analyzes which technologies will have the largest market share in terms of installations through 2020 for small- (1kW - 100kW), medium- (100kW - 10MW) and large-scale (10MW - 100MW+) deployments. Though CSP will remain a growing market, particularly for utility-scale installations, a forecast of total projected solar installations through 2020 suggests that CSP (combined CST and CPV) will make up less than 10% of the 288GW installed, with the remaining 90+% going to flat plate and tracking PV. CSP has quickly become one of the most heated market segments in all of renewable energy, but it's important to step back and understand how it will grow along with the evolution of PV.

This report provides an excellent resource for companies that want a complete understanding of the CSP market today and going forward. The 145-page report focuses on the impact CSP technologies will have on the solar and broader renewable energy markets through 2020. Complete with more than 130 tables, charts and graphs, it includes:

  • Detailed definitions of the numerous CSP technologies
  • Comprehensive understanding of the markets for CSP
  • In-depth view of the CSP industry, including current and planned capacity, and select company profiles
  • Thorough CSP financial analysis and projections
  • Exhaustive appendices filled with additional supporting data
  • The following thumbnail images provide additional views of pages that are available in the full report. The report's executive summary can be downloaded by submitting your email address below.

Report Authors

Travis Bradford, Sorin Grama, Elizabeth Wayman

Author Bio

Travis founded the Prometheus Institute in 2003 as a means to connect the vast reach and power of industrial and capital markets with the technologies necessary to sustain and develop long-term economic well-being for people around the world. Travis is currently the Editor-in-Chief of PVNews, the solar energy industry's oldest newsletter, and is the author of Solar Revolution: The Economic Transformation of the Global Energy Industry published by MIT Press. He is also a partner at Atlas Capital, a hedge fund based in Cambridge, MA.

Author Bio

Sorin Grama holds a Masters of Science in Engineering and Management from MIT and is the president and co-founder of a renewable energy start-up based in Cambridge, MA.  Before coming to MIT, Sorin worked for 12 years as an engineering consultant and was the co-owner of a systems integration business in California focusing on developing test, measurement and automation systems for a diverse base of clients ranging from biotech to telecom and aerospace.  Sorin researched and co-authored the prior thin-fi lm solar report published by the Prometheus Institute and Greentech Media in 2007.

Author Bio

Prior to her work at Prometheus Institute, Libby was a co-founder and engineering principal at the Solar Turbine Group.  Based in Cambrige, MA, the group focuses on the design and dissemination of renewable energy technologies for use and fabrication in developing countries.  Her work with this group has included the assessment of needs and resources of rural areas of Southern Africa, and the design, fabrica- tion, and fi eld-testing of small-scale concentrating solar power sys- tems in that region.  Libby holds a Bachelor’s degree in Civil Engineer- ing and a Master’s degree in Mechanical Engineering from MIT.

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