PV Technology, Production and Cost, 2009 Forecast

PV THROUGH 2012: The Anatomy of a Shakeout

Fueled by aggressive policies and generous subsidies in key markets, global PV demand has grown from a mere 125 MW in 1999 to 4.5 GW in 2008. But over the last six months, the PV market has witnessed a perfect storm emerge, with a looming global recession and severe tightening of credit markets. Amid news of slowing demand, idling lines and cancellations of capacity additions, concerns over modest oversupply have escalated into fears of a full-blown shakeout and a dramatic decline in market size. To comprehensively lay out the causes and implications of recent dynamic shifts within the PV industry over the next few years, GTM Research and the Prometheus Institute are releasing PV Technology, Production and Cost, 2009 Forecast: The Anatomy of a Shakeout.

Featured in This Report

• Production and capacity forecasts from 2008–2012 for PV cells, modules and wafers
• Market share analysis by company, technology and region
• Quantitative analysis of manufacturing cost structure for PV modules and the evolution of costs for different technologies over time
• First ever global PV module supply curves from 2008–2012 utilizing the most robust supply and cost models in the industry
• Detailed profiles for 118 crystalline silicon and thin-film companies, for cells, wafers and modules

Report Findings

• Global module capacity will grow to 27.5 GW by 2012 from 5.7 GW in 2007, sufficient to produce 23 GW of PV modules. Thin-film modules will have a market share of 34 percent in 2012 from 13 percent in 2007, and rapid uptake of thin film will create new market leaders.
• Module costs for crystalline silicon will halve by 2015 to $1.40 per watt; costs for CIGS thin films will be down to 75 cents per watt. Falling costs are quickly setting the stage for "grid parity" in major markets, which will fuel demand for long-term growth.
• Dramatically falling prices in 2009 will impact major players; high-efficiency monocrystalline and low-cost thin-film technologies will have a 30 percent efficiency-adjusted cost advantage over traditional multicrystalline producers, leaving them well-positioned to survive the impending shakeout.
• Asia will constitute 82 percent of global crystalline silicon cells by 2012. The dramatic ramp in production will drive costs down for Asian producers, giving them a significant edge over established European players who will lag behind in expanding manufacturing capacity.